Rhythmic Reasoning_Full Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 43
THE DRUMMER'S EAR | RHYTHMIC REASONING
Fig. 4: Chilean inflation remains above target
20%
YoY % change
15%
10%
5%
0%
2015
headline
2017
2019
tradables
2021
2023
services
2025
BCCh policy rates will have a much less important role in 2026
than in recent quarters, given the bank’s proximity to its neutral
rate and expectations for growth to remain firm in the near-tomedium term. We believe that, at the December meeting, the
BCCh will lift its estimate for the neutral rate range by 25bps
to 3.75-4.25% with a 4.25% midpoint, reflecting a convergence
towards monetary conditions consistent with a closed output gap
and a higher potential GDP growth rate. We expect that the BCCh’s
next and final 25bps rate cut to 4.25%, conditioned on inflation and
currency developments, will therefore come at the mid-December
announcement (skipping the October decision a few weeks before
the 1st round of elections).
3% goal
Source: BCCh, Scotia Wealth Management.
43 of 62
