Macro Markets and Machines_The Economic and Market Transformation Driven by AI_GWM report - Flipbook - Page 40
Macro, Markets, and Machines
November 2025
Exhibit 34 – AI Skills Are Concentrated in a Few Countries (AI Skills Penetration, OECD = 1)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Sources: OECD; Scotia Wealth Management.
A recent paper by Stanford University researchers analyzes U.S. labour market data for early signs of the
effects of AI, presenting six key findings on labour market weakness for young workers, presented below
(Exhibit 35). Note, however, that these are very preliminary findings at a micro level, whose conclusions are not
(yet, at least) evident for the economy as a whole, but growing case-specific evidence could act as a guide for
broader labour-market implications of AI.
1.
There have been important employment declines for young workers in AI-exposed careers such as
software developers and customer service representatives in contrast to stable or continued growth for
more experienced peers.
2.
Early-career employment has stagnated since late 2022 versus ongoing increases in overall
employment. In more AI-exposed fields, younger workers have seen a 6% drop in jobs, opposite to a
6%-9% rise for experienced workers.
3.
Entry-level employment has fallen in positions where AI primarily automates work, compared with job
gains in those where AI augments output.
4.
AI-exposed young workers experience weaker employment trends than less-AI-exposed peers in their
age cohort in the same industry or firm.
5.
Adjustments in labour markets are more visible in employment numbers than on employee
compensation. Young AI-exposed hiring prospects may be weaker, but wage growth dynamics are on
par with their more experienced or less AI-exposed peers.
6.
The relationship between AI exposure factors and weakness in early-career labour markets became
apparent starting in late 2022 as generative AI tool usage grew rapidly, around the time of the
introduction of ChatGPT in November of that year.
Scotia Wealth Management
39
