Macro Markets and Machines_The Economic and Market Transformation Driven by AI_GWM report - Flipbook - Page 30
Macro, Markets, and Machines
November 2025
What drives this cross-country divergence? In its simulation, the IMF’s work considers three key elements –
exposure, preparedness, and access (also discussed earlier in this report) – that result in important crosscountry/regional divergences in AI adoption and thus on its productivity and growth tailwinds. The main
results of the IMF report that we cite above focus on exposure and preparedness factors for a baseline AI shock
scenario, setting aside the access aspect to generate alternative scenarios where some countries face
constraints in the availability of AI technologies – as recently seen by the United States limiting exports of
advanced AI chips to China.
Image created by Scotia Wealth Management.
1.
Exposure
AI exposure considers how much a country’s economy and/or industry’s workers may be affected by AI as a
complement to labour but also as a possible substitute for labour. Sectoral differences, such as a higher
information technology share of labour and the economy, and occupational differences, as shown in the withinindustry share of positions highly exposed to AI, all build up to country-sector AI exposure indices. In the case of
the United States, the authors estimate that AI-intensive industries account for 16.3% of GDP, compared with
12.9% in the European Union, 12.1% in China, and 8.7% in emerging markets (excluding Asia) (Exhibit 22); we
discuss what makes an industry AI-intensive later in this report.
Although the European Union’s and China’s AI-intensive-economy shares are comparable, at first glance
implying that TFP gains from productivity may be similar, the impact of AI would not be felt in only these
sectors. In the European Union, non-tradable industries (i.e., services) represent 64% of the economy, where
workers have a higher exposure to AI given the prevalence of tasks associated with data or language processing
or computer usage. In China, the non-tradable sector accounts for a smaller share of GDP at 60%, while its
tradable sector (agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and transportation) is close to 30% of the economy.
Scotia Wealth Management
29
