Macro Markets and Machines_The Economic and Market Transformation Driven by AI_GWM report - Flipbook - Page 20
Macro, Markets, and Machines
November 2025
Section 3: Exposure, Preparedness, and Access – Shaping the AI Race
Walid Khalid, CFA | Director, Investment Strategy, Scotiabank Global Wealth
Juan Manuel Herrera | Senior Economist, Scotiabank Global Wealth Management
•
Advanced economies have the highest exposure to AI, with about 60% of jobs potentially affected, compared
to 42% in emerging markets and 26% in low-income countries. Early data (Stanford, 2025) suggests job
displacement risk is highest for young workers in AI-exposed fields (e.g., software development), while lessexposed roles (stock clerks, health aides) continue to grow.
•
The United States and other advanced economies rank highest in terms of AI preparedness as per an IMF
index. Indeed, AI-related investment in the United States is highest relative to other major economies, while
the country boasts more data centres than the next 15 countries combined.
•
The United States dominates in access to semiconductors, cloud computing, and capital, giving it a structural
advantage. China faces export controls but is developing homegrown solutions (e.g., DeepSeek). Emerging
markets and low-income countries face challenges: imited access to high-end chips, high cloud costs, and
shallow capital markets.
•
Historical trends show technology costs decline rapidly over time, enabling broader adoption. Open-source
models (like DeepSeek) may help level the playing field by reducing hardware and compute requirements,
making AI adoption more feasible for countries with fewer resources.
•
Early AI gains will be concentrated in advanced economies, reinforcing divides between wealthy and poor
countries. Over time, as costs fall and technology diffuses, emerging and low-income economies may realize
more AI-driven productivity gains.
AI is a versatile, general-purpose technology, meaning its effects will span across industries, sectors, and
economies. However, the distribution of those effects will not be uniform. Instead, the benefits and challenges
associated with AI will depend heavily on three factors, as defined by the IMF:
1.
Exposure: “How extensively AI can affect its workforce and industries.”
2.
Preparedness: “The readiness of a country’s institutions, digital infrastructure, workforce, regulatory
frameworks and governance structures.”
3.
Access: “The availability of AI-specific technologies, data, and infrastructure, along with global partnerships,
necessary to fully harness AI.”
The IMF assesses the impact of AI based on these three factors across three geographical regions: advanced
economies, emerging markets, and low-income countries.
Exposure: The extent to which AI will reshape the labour force and economic output will likely vary across
economies. The IMF estimates that roughly 60% of jobs in advanced economies are exposed to AI, compared
with 42% in emerging markets and 26% in low-income countries (Exhibit 13). Note that exposure does not
necessarily translate to the proportion of jobs that will be displaced. Instead, it refers to the degree that tasks
within a particular job function could potentially be automated or augmented. For instance, while some labour
market disruption may occur in advanced economies, the exposure metric does not imply that 60% of jobs will
become redundant.
Scotia Wealth Management
19
