1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 82
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
Corporate and household loan demand remains weak
15%
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
2019
2022
Aggregate financing stock (YoY) - LHS
2025
Stock of yuan loans to real economy (YoY) - RHS
Source: The People’s Bank of China, Bloomberg Finance LP, Scotia Wealth Management
Challenges on the home front are being offset by resilient exports as China has benefitted from
fragmented global trade by deepening economic ties and expanding its presence across
emerging markets and less developed regions. Exports rebounded in November, rising 5.9% yearover-year (YoY) in USD terms from a 1.1% decline in October, exceeding the median consensus
estimate that called for a 4.0% pickup. Outbound shipments far outpaced imports, which rose by
1.9% YoY, above October’s 1.0% rise but below the 3.0% median projection. U.S.-bound exports
plummeted 28.5% YoY – the eighth straight month of double-digit declines and the deepest since
August – only to be offset by accelerating shipments to the European Union (+14.9% YoY), LatAm
(+14.8%), and Africa (+27.7%), alongside slowing yet still positive exports to ASEAN (+8.4%)
economies.
Chinese exports to the rest of the world have remained resilient, offsetting weakness in
demand from the U.S.
80%
Exports by country (YoY)
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Jan 2025
Mar 2025
U.S.
May 2025
E.U.
Jul 2025
LatAm
ASEAN
Sep 2025
Nov 2025
Africa
Source: Customs General Administration PRC, Bloomberg Finance LP, Scotia Wealth Management
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