1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 81
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
Fixed asset investment is on track to shrinking in 2025
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
Fixed asset investment ex. rural (YTD YoY) - 3 mth moving avg.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg Finance LP, Scotia Wealth Management
Industrial output was the lone bright spot, rising 4.8% year-over-year, though this too undershot
the median consensus estimate that called for 5% growth. Through the first eleven months of the
year, industrial production is up 6% year-over-year, a tick below the prior month’s reading.
Industrial output is below trend but is one of the few drivers of China’s economy
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2010
2013
2016
2019
YoY industrial output - 3 mth moving avg.
2022
2025
Avg. (2010-2019)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg Finance LP, Scotia Wealth Management
Domestic challenges are being highlighted by muted credit expansion. New yuan loans in
November totaled 392 billion, falling short of estimates. The stock of outstanding credit to the
real economy sat at 8.5% and has been on a downtrend for the last few years. Household loans
contracted for a second straight month, the first time this has happened based on data going
back to 2005.
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