1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 5
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Jean-François Perrault
Senior Vice President & Chief
Economist
Juan Manuel Herrera Betancourt
Senior Economist, Investment
Strategy
2026f
2027f
World
3.7%
3.1%
2.9%
3.1%
Canada
2.2%
1.7%
1.5%
1.8%
United States
2.4%
1.9%
1.6%
2.1%
Eurozone
1.4%
1.4%
1.1%
1.5%
United Kingdom
2.0%
1.4%
1.1%
1.4%
Japan
1.2%
1.1%
0.8%
0.8%
China
7.7%
4.8%
4.4%
4.1%
Mexico
2.3%
0.1%
0.6%
1.0%
Colombia
3.7%
2.6%
2.9%
3.0%
Chile
3.3%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Peru
4.5%
3.3%
3.2%
3.0%
Emerging
2025f
Developed
2010-2019
Source: Scotiabank Economics
Key conclusions
•
The global economic outlook remains challenged by the ongoing impacts of U.S. trade
policies and associated uncertainty, with the mid-year USMCA review standing as the first
major hurdle followed by U.S. midterm elections in November that may define the
balance of President Trump’s second term.
•
The U.S. economy is accumulating signs of weakening underneath headline GDP strength
propped by a surge in tech-related investment, amid weak job creation and consumption
that has mostly been supported by higher-income households. Additional Fed policy
easing should help, though growth will remain muted.
•
Canada and Europe are struggling with the evolving trade situation, but fiscal support is
stepping in as an important offset, while China’s trade diversification counteracts soft
household spending and investment. In Latam, uncertainty will remain constant as
ongoing external risks combine with regional elections and fiscal challenges.
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