1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 42
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
COMMODITIES
Tanya Jakusconek
Managing Director, Equity
Research Gold & Precious
Minerals
Paul Cheng
Managing Director, Equity
Research Alternative Fuels,
E&P, Independent Refiners,
Major Integrated Oils
Orest Wowkodaw
Managing Director, Equity
Research Metals & Mining
2025
2026f
2027f
WTI (US$/bbl)
$57.42
$60.00
$57.00
Brent (US$/bbl)
$60.85
$65.00
$62.00
WCS - WTI discount (US$/bbl)
-$13.90
-$13.00
-$14.00
Nymex nat. gas (US$/mmBtu)
$3.69
$5.00
$4.00
Copper (US$/lb)
$4.51
$4.75
$4.75
Iron ore (US$/t)
$107.19
$90.00
$90.00
Gold (US$/oz)
$4,319.37
$4,100
$3,900
Silver(US$/oz)
$70.60
$50.00
$48.00
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Scotia GBM, Scotiabank Economics. Forecasts are as at December 11, 2025. Commodity prices are an annual average .
Key conclusions
•
We remain cautious on the oil market’s medium-term outlook, with investor sentiment
gradually shifting more bearish as inventory buildout becomes visible, while the market
pins a weakening demand/supply balance against high volatility driven by geopolitical
headlines.
•
We expect heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty, high global debt levels,
and strong official sector buying to support a continued above-average premium to our
fair value gold price.
•
Despite heightened demand risks, we continue to see very strong pricing support for
copper given reasonably low inventories and the impact of elevated supply-side
underperformance.
Crude Oil
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