1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 36
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
Labour taxes are an important source of government revenue
U.S.
Italy
U.K.
France
Germany
Canada
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% of total tax general government revenue
Social security contributions
Goods &services
Other
Individual income
Payroll
Property
Source: OECD, Scotiabank Economics | Note: *Capital gains taxes on individuals included in this category, excluded from individual tax revenue category to proxy
labour taxation burden.
As these pressures become more politically salient, policy responses are likely to follow. AI
regulation is already increasing, with the number of AI-related regulatory measures in the U.S.
rising from just one in 2016 to approximately 60 by 2024. Over time, governments may pursue
more explicit redistribution mechanisms aimed at rebalancing income distribution and
preserving social cohesion. These could include AI dividends, windfall profit taxes, or data usage
levies that redirect a portion of AI-generated surplus toward households and the public sector.
While such measures may modestly compress corporate profit margins, they could also broaden
purchasing power, support aggregate demand, and help stabilize the economic system during
the transition.
It’s still early days, but AI regulation is starting to pick up
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
# of AI-related regulations in the U.S.
Source: Stanford HAI 2025 AI Index Report, Scotiabank Economics
Energy constraints may extend the bull run
Of course, none of this is preordained. A meaningful degree of humility is required when
discussing the path forward for AI, particularly given the scale, speed, and uncertainty
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