1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 138
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
FIXED INCOME
Catherine Payne
Managing Director, Fixed
Income
George Kolev
Senior Manager, Global Sovereigns
Gilberto Cabral Haro
Senior Manager, Global
Investment Grade
Jaime Antonio Armijo Adonis
Senior Manager, Global High Yield
3m. ∆
2-10Yr
YTD ∆
2-10Yr
2 Yr. Yield
10 Yr. Yield
Canada Gov't
2.59%
3.43%
+14 bps
+55 bps
U.S. Treasury
3.47%
4.17%
+15 bps
+37 bps
Global Sovereign
2.74%
3.46%
+9 bps
+28 bps
Corporate
YTW
Spread (bps)
'AAA' IG Corp.
4.50%
37
3m. ∆
spread ∆
YTD ∆
spread ∆
'AA' IG Corp.
4.15%
49
+4 bps
-5 bps
'A' IG Corp.
4.27%
67
+2 bps
-9 bps
'BBB' IG Corp.
4.54%
97
+4 bps
-9 bps
'BB-B' HY Corp.
5.63%
209
-1 bps
-16 bps
'CCC+/D' HY Corp.
10.37%
720
+45 bps
+69 bps
+3 bps
-3 bps
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Scotia Wealth Management
IG: Investment Grade, HY: High Yield
Key conclusions
•
Global synchronized monetary policy easing has run its course with a few central banks
likely on hold (Bank of Canada, ECB) while the FOMC and BoE stand among those easing
with the Bank of Japan leading the next rate cycle
•
U.S. investment grade market performance should carry into 2026 as AI tech funding
increases
•
Emerging markets debt outlook remains constructive
•
Private credit: Discipline and quality are never out of style
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