1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 110
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
among a wide field of hopefuls. Our assumption is that, under the next government, the
Ministry of Economy and Finance will maintain fiscal policy more or less within the channels
followed over the last 15 years. Another assumption is that the country’s general institutionality
does not continue to erode.
Peru has been able to grow despite the political turbulence of the last eight years largely thanks
to the strength of economic institutions, such as Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP). This
institutionality has been decisive in maintaining the soundness of the economic accounts. As is
the case under every new government, the BCRP’s board of directors will be renewed in 2026,
with much of the country’s economic future depending on this decision. As for monetary policy
decisions, we do not think the BCRP will be under heavy pressure to make more than marginal
tweaks to its reference rate (i.e., one more cut), although we also do not know what awaits
during the election race and whether this may prompt the BCRP to react via rate policy or
intervention in currency markets.
Anchored current and expected inflation keeps BCRP cool
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2015
2017
12m inflation expectations
2019
2021
BCRP rate
2023
Headline inflation
2025
Inflation target
Source: BCRP, INEI, Scotia Wealth Management.
109
