1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 109
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
Strong private consumption and investment trends
200%
YoY change
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
2015
2017
2019
Private fixed investment
2021
2023
Private consumption
2025
Source: BCRP, Scotia Wealth Management.
Realised and planned investment in the mining sector is in good standing thanks to positive
long-run supply-demand determinants, helping to lift overall private investment growth to 10%
YoY in the first three quarters of 2025 – its best pace of expansion since 2013 (outside of the
2021 snapback).
The uncertain political backdrop was also no match for a strong household sector, which grew
by 3.5-4% YoY in every quarter from 3Q24 to 3Q25, recovering from the zero growth it
registered over the course of 2023 in the aftermath of former President Castillo’s arrest and
various episodes of social unrest, all amid weakened household and business confidence. Now,
in 2026, solid employment growth, low inflation, and another round of pension withdrawals
represent a firm foundation for another strong expansion in consumption.
Preferences for the 2026 presidential vote are far from defined
30%
voting intention (Dec. 2025 poll)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: Ipsos, Scotia Wealth Management.
Given the present weakness of political institutions in Peru, elections represent an additional
source of uncertainty. It is difficult to predict the outcome of the presidential and parliamentary
elections, let alone determine an eventual economic impact; there are no leading candidates
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