1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 108
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
trajectory in 2026, although uncertainty and possible risks emerging ahead of, and because of,
the upcoming April presidential elections, as well as a scaling back of public spending, will likely
prevent a significant acceleration in growth from the 3.3% pace that Peru’s economy expanded
by in 2025, according to our estimates.
The key to whether growth will speed up in Peru will rely heavily on the outcome of the 2026
elections. Our growth forecast going forward assumes political turbulence similar to the last
decade. Should the 2026 outcome be more encouragingly pro-market, at both the executive
and congressional level, growth could quicken.
The dollar value of Peruvian gold exports has doubled since 2023
USD bn, 6mth mov. avg.
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1995
2000
2005
Other mining/agriculture
2010
2015
Gold
2020
Copper
2025
Source: BCRP, Scotia Wealth Management.
The uncertainty generated by U.S. policies did not affect Peru in 2025. The White House’s
actions were even a net positive for the country thanks to strong rallies in copper and gold
prices, while tariff decisions were of little significance to Peru. Similarly, neither electoral
uncertainty ahead of the 2026 vote nor the removal of President Dina Boluarte from office in
October noticeably affect economic data during 2025. Throughout all this noise, the biggest
real hit to Peru’s economy during the year was perhaps the temporary closure of an iron ore
mine after a collapse in May 2025.
The extraordinary improvement in Peru’s terms of trade in 2025 clearly overwhelmed other
considerations, including political concerns. Between January and September, Peruvian exports
of copper and gold totalled USD 19.3bn and USD 15.7bn, compared to USD 17.2bn and USD
11bn over the same period in 2024, respectively.
The course for metals prices may play a big role in Peruvian GDP numbers in 2026. Currently,
experts forecast steady-to-stronger copper and gold prices in the near-to-medium term. These
views will be put to the test by global economic conditions in the case of copper – more so if
China’s economy underperforms – and the pace of institutional/official purchases of gold. Still,
while short-term price fluctuations would affect GDP from the net trade channel, they are
unlikely to materially affect mining investment plans that have a much longer time horizon and
remain supported by long-run fundamentals. Here, it would take a starker shift in the outlook
for supply-demand conditions.
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