1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 107
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
PERU
Juan Manuel Herrera
Betancourt
Senior Economist,
Investment Strategy
Guillermo Arbe Carbonel
Head of Economic Research,
Peru
Latest
2025f
2026f
2027f
GDP Growth
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.0%
Inflation
1.3%
1.5%
1.9%
2.1%
Unemployment
5.9%
6.0%
5.8%
5.6%
Budget Bal.
-3.5%
-2.4%
-2.1%
-1.8%
Latest
2025
1-yr fwd
2-yr fwd
2-yr yield
4.0%
4.0%
4.4%
4.9%
10-yr yield
5.8%
5.8%
6.6%
7.1%
Yield curve slope
1.8%
1.8%
2.1%
2.2%
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Scotiabank Economics, Scotia Wealth Management. "Latest" values are as at December 31, 2025 and, for data other than bond
yields, pertain to the most recent monthly, quarterly, or annual reading available on this date. GDP, inflation, and unemployment forecasts are based on Scotiabank
Economics forecasts dated December 11, 2025. Budget balance forecast is based on median consensus estimate compiled by Bloomberg | 2025 inflation and
unemployment are based on the average YoY rates for each month of the year. | 2025 yields are as at December 31, 2025. Forward periods are relative to December
31, 2025 and are based on forward market pricing.
Key takeaways
•
We expect that Peru’s economy will again resist the challenges posed by international
trade and internal political developments, with GDP expected to grow by (at least) 3%
again in 2026 and 2027 and inflation averaging about 2% over the period.
•
The key to whether growth will speed up will rely heavily on the outcome of April’s vote
Our growth forecast assumes political turbulence alike the past decade.
•
Should the 2026 outcome be more encouragingly pro-market, at both the executive
and congressional level, growth could quicken. Today, it is difficult to predict the
outcome of the election, with no leading candidates among a wide field of hopefuls.
And so we go into another year of uncertainty in Peru, hoping we’ll get a repeat of what
happened in 2025, when the risks that Peru faced at the beginning of the year did not
materialize in a significantly negative direction. Will 2026 be more of the same, with strong
growth, low inflation, and a healthy macroeconomic equilibrium? As things stand, we think this
will be the case, with Peru expected to grow by (at least) 3% again in 2026 and 2027 and
inflation averaging about 2% over the period. The country is expected to remain on a firm
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