1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 102
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
A Datafolha poll carried out shortly after Flavio’s announcement revealed that he would suffer a
large defeat to President Lula, with respondents split 51-36%, compared to Lula vs Tarcisio at
47% and 42%, respectively. If the gap between Lula and Flavio remains wide for several weeks,
the latter would likely have to bow out of the race and the Bolsonaros may more seriously
consider supporting Tarcísio—which would come with higher odds of possible amnesty for Jair
Bolsonaro during his presidency compared to practically zero chance under another Lula term.
Tarcísio announcing in the next few months that he is running in October 2026 with Bolsonaro’s
support could be a strong catalyst for a leg higher in Brazilian assets, though polls will then need
to confirm whether such optimism is warranted.
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