1Q26_ Quarterly Outlook Report_Final_EN - Flipbook - Page 101
T H E P LUMB LI N E | A RETU RN TO F I RS T PRI N CI PL ES
scheduled for October 26, 2026. Who the opposition contender will be remains a major
unknown – one that could shift the race from a tight contest to one where Lula is the clear
favourite.
It is yet unclear who may be Lula’s main opposition in October’s vote, with recent developments
showing that markets have a clear preference. While former President Jair Bolsonaro is unable
to run for office after being convicted for leading a coup d’état attempt in 2023, he remains a
very popular figure in Brazilian politics and anyone who wants a strong shot at the presidency
would require Bolsonaro’s blessing. In early-December, Bolsonaro’s eldest, Senator Flavio
Bolsonaro, announced that his father had backed him to run in the 2026 elections. Steep losses
in the country’s equities and currency upon this news reflected the market’s disappointment at
falling odds that it would be Tarcísio de Freitas, the Governor of São Paulo, who would gain
Bolsonaro’s backing.
Tarcísio, a market-friendly and pragmatic candidate, faces an early-April deadline to resign from
the São Paulo governorship if he intends to throw his hat in the ring for the presidency or
instead run for re-election in Brazil’s most important state by a wide margin – a third of the
national economy. The longer Tarcísio delays a public decision, the less likely it would seem that
Bolsonaro will endorse him for the October election, increasing the odds that Tarcísio opts to
remain in his current seat rather than run without Bolsonaro’s backing.
Markets will now be paying close attention to whether Flavio fully intends to be on October’s
ticket, amid speculation that the ‘early’ announcement of his father’s backing is intended to
pressure the centre-right establishment to support legal amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro. Prior to his
declared push for the presidency, Flavio was not seen as a likely candidate, with pollsters
focusing on his brother Eduardo or mother Michelle as possible contenders among the
Bolsonaros. All in the former president’s family are broadly perceived as too inexperienced for
the main office in Brasilia, with Flavio’s candidacy significantly increasing the odds that Lula is
chosen for another four years.
Lula leads polls, but less so against Freitas
head-to-head, voting intention
60%
Lula
53%
50%
Bolsonaro, or Freitas
51%
49%
45%
46%
47%
45%
42%
41%
40%
36%
35%
36%
vs Bolsonaro
vs Freitas
vs Bolsonaro
30%
20%
10%
0%
vs Bolsonaro
vs Freitas
AtlasIntel (Dec. 15)
Quaest (Dec. 14)
vs Freitas
DataFolha (Dec. 4)
Source: AtlasIntel, Quaest, DataFolha, Scotia Wealth Management.
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